TradeWins Inside Trading Newsletter

July 17, 2024

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It’s Time to Get Bullish on Bitcoin Stocks Again by Ian Cooper

How to Spot 90% Winners by Don Fishback

PULSE Options Weekly Newsletter by Chris Verhaegh

TradeWins Author Team

Unlock the 30-day secret to potentially making an extra $1,403 per month with a tiny account!

In fact, You could’ve made a total of 742% on your money doing exactly this the past 5 years (includes winners and losers).

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It’s Time to Get Bullish on Bitcoin Stocks Again
by Ian Cooper

Bitcoin may have bottomed out.

Fears of further downside in the digital currency appear to be fading, with Germany running out of BTC to sell. “Data from Arkham shows that the wallet used by the German government to transfer BTC is now out of funds,” as noted by FXStreet.com.

“The transfers by the German government were contributing to the selling pressure on the largest asset by market capitalization. As the balance dips to zero, the selling pressure is expected to ease and make way for recovery in Bitcoin price,” they added.

With that, the price of Bitcoin is now back above $60,000 and could race higher, as fear dies off.

That being said, investors want to use weakness as an opportunity with:

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

The company, which now owns 214,400 BTC, saw its MSTR stock dip slight to $1,396.

While you can always buy the stock here, you can buy it for less when it splits it shares 10:1 on August 1. It’ll then start trading at its stock split adjusted price on August 8. Using the current price tag of $1,396, the stock would trade at $139.60 post-split. From there, if Bitcoin prices rally even higher, MSTR could easily race much higher from that post-split price.

How to Spot 90% Winners
by Don Fishback

When someone asks me what separates the professional from the novice, one thing comes to mind – the professional try to keep it simple, while the novice tends to make things far more complicated than necessary. The pro, for example, looks for trades that will win consistently, and then implements the appropriate strategy. The key is finding those trades that are likely to be consistent winners. To find them, many professionals use volatility.

Volatility provides you with everything you need to calculate probability. If you want to win consistently, naturally you would look for trades that have high probability of success. I want to show you the simplicity for spotting trades that have a 90% chance of success. This 3-step method is so easy, it will shock you!

Probability is equal to the area under the bell curve. If we are looking for a trade that has a 90% chance of success, then we need to find a trade whose profit range will comprise 90% of the area under the curve.

Below is a graph that shows you what we mean. The highlighted area identifies 90% of the area under the curve. The 90% boundary is 1.28155 standard deviations. That is, any option strategy whose range of profit is less than 1.28155 standard deviations from the current price is a bearish strategy that has a 90% chance of being profitable. Unfortunately, 1.28155 standard deviations are not useful to a trader. We need to turn it into market information.

First Things First

If you look at the Economic Calendar, you’ll see that no Major Government Report jumps out at you. That’s not to say this upcoming week will be a slow week. On the contrary.

Earnings Season, which started last week with a handful of companies releasing gets in full swing this upcoming week. Not only are all the stocks listed below candidates in and of themselves, but if a number of them shock, combined they have an ability to move the market as a whole.

Monday, July 15
Before the Open: Goldman Sachs (GS), Blackrock (BLK)

Tuesday, July 16
Before the Open: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS)

Thursday, July 18
After the Close: Netflix (NFLX)

Friday, July 19
Before the Open: American Express (AXP), Haliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB)

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