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Developing a Trading Plan for Longer-Term Trading
by Duane Davis
If you choose to trade longer-term using daily and weekly charts, follow these easy steps to huge profits.
Choose from one of the trending markets.
Start with a weekly chart and locate the nearest support and resistance areas.
If a market is near the recent highs, be sure to note where the nearest support is just below the current price. Remember, support is defined as a recent peak that is below the current price.
If a market is near the recent lows, look for a resistance area (or a dip in the price) just above the current price.
Support and resistance areas act as 'magnets'. If a market has made a recent price peak and begins to pull back, many traders will wait for the price to pull back to a recent high to re-enter the market.
Add trend lines to the weekly chart. Trend lines do a great job in helping to identify the current trend of a market. When drawing trend lines, look for both upward as well as downward sloping lines.
Consider adding an oscillator such as the RSI to the weekly chart. Pay special attention to readings in the RSI that are above 70 or below 30.
Great opportunities can come from markets that have been in an uptrend and have recently pulled back from a price peak. If the pull back has been mild as compared to recent rallies, look for the uptrend to continue. Similarly, if a market has been in a downtrend and a mild rally has just taken place, look for the possibility of the downtrend to continue.
Finally, reach a conclusion about the weekly chart. Is the market in an uptrend, a downtrend or is it moving sideways? If the price has been trending up in recent weeks, has it reached an overbought condition?
Try to look at more than one market. For example, if your favorite Forex pair is the EURUSD, take the time to look at 2 or 3 of the other 'trenders' as well.
Always try to trade in the direction of the longer-term trend. Using daily charts, you can buy the pull backs during an uptrend (or vice versa for downtrends). But be real careful if the price is challenging a weekly trend line. Uptrends and downtrends don’t last forever, eventually the trend will change. So watch the weekly trend lines very carefully.
When a major weekly trend line is broken, it can be an indication of a major trend reversal.
Once you've found a weekly chart that you believe may provide a trading opportunity, focus your attention on a daily chart.
Start your analysis of the daily chart by identifying the current support and resistance areas. It's not unusual to find support and resistance areas that were not that noticeable on the weekly chart. Remember, support and resistance areas act as 'magnets'.
Consider adding trend lines to help us identify the shorter-term trend. Often times these may be the same as those from the weekly chart. Remember to look for both upward as well as downward sloping lines.
To help identify if the market is overbought or oversold, consider adding an oscillator such as the RSI. If the RSI does not indicate that the market is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30), then consider adding Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are a great visual aid as to the direction of the current market. When using Bollinger Bands, avoid taking a long position if the price is trading at or near the upper band. Similarly, avoid taking a short position if the price is trading at or near the lower band. Upper and lower Bollinger Bands should be looked at as resistance points.
When a market has been identified on a weekly chart as being in an uptrend, the best trading opportunities come when a pull back has caused the daily chart to become oversold. In these situations, if the RSI on the daily chart is under 30 and it turns up, look for a reason to be a buyer. Just the opposite occurs in a downtrend. If you're using Bollinger Bands and the price is at or near the lower band, look to be a buyer.
Decide on an entry point. If your analysis is telling you that the market is likely to go higher, wait for a day where the market closes in the upper portion of the trading range.
If you enter a trade based on the break of a trend line, choose a price that will clearly indicate that the trend line has been broken. Breaking a trend line by a few pips is not a clear break.
Before you trade, decide where to place your stop. Not every trade will work, so never trade without a stop. Stops should be placed just beyond recent highs or lows. If your entry is based on breaking a trend line, your stop should be just on the other side of that trend line. It's just that easy, your risk is minimized.
Based on your entry price, calculate what your maximum loss would be if it turns out that your trade doesn’t work. When you first start out, consider trading in a mini account where your risk is much smaller.
PLEASE READ: Auto-trading, or any broker or advisor-directed type of trading, is not supported or endorsed by TradeWins. For additional information on auto-trading, you may visit the SEC’s website: All About Auto-Trading, TradeWins does not recommend or refer subscribers to broker-dealers. You should perform your own due diligence with respect to satisfactory broker-dealers and whether to open a brokerage account. You should always consult with your own professional advisers regarding equities and options on equities trading.
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